When Wrong Makes Right: The Hidden Impact of Exploratory Models
Dr Ine Steenmans, University College London (UCL)
In this talk, Dr Ine Steenmans, Associate Professor in Futures, Analysis and Policy at UCL, challenges the traditional focus on predictive accuracy in policy modelling.
Drawing on recent studies, she argues that a model's greatest impact often comes from how it transforms our thinking, not what it predicts.
By valuing exploratory power alongside predictive power, even "wrong" models can generate profound evidence for policy.
Join this talk for a provocative discussion challenging common assumptions about what makes good and impact analysis, as well as practical techniques for leveraging models as cognitive tools in our work for expanding possibilities rather than merely forecasting probabilities.
About the presenters
Dr Ine Steenmans is an Associate Professor in Futures, Analysis and Policy at the University College London (UCL). Ine’s research focuses on future policy competencies and capabilities. What analytical competencies do policy professionals need, and how do they develop them? How do groups develop collective analytical capabilities? And how can the development of competencies and capabilities be better aligned?
All her work takes a needs-led, transformation-oriented approach, which involves working in partnership with policy professionals. Recent projects included capability development work on the uses of systems mapping, evaluation skills, scenarios, and strategy tools – in collaboration with BEIS, Lloyds Insurance, UNDP, Policy Lab, the UAE Office of Advanced Sciences and the UAE Space Agency. Before joining UCL in 2017, Ine worked as a foresight researcher in the UK Government Office for Science.
What you could learn in this session
- Having a positive impact on decision making / evidence based decision making
- Engaging with academics to learn more about ideas that could have an impact
Secure your space today!
About AiG Month (1-31 May 2025)
- Analysis in Government Month (AiG Month) is the UK's largest learning and development event for government analysts
- The Analysis Function has around 17,000 members working across analysis professions and government departments
- This event is part of Analysis in Government (AiG) Month, brought to you by the Analysis Function
- Every government analyst is considered to be a member of the Analysis Function. Our members include actuaries, digital and data analysts, data scientists, economists, geographers, operational researchers, social researchers, stastisticians, dual badged, and unaffiliated analysts
- Find out more about AiG Month 2025 on our new AiG Month Hub
- Follow us on Eventbrite to be the first to find out about new events
- Follow us on X @gov_analysis and connect with us on LinkedIn
